Picking the Winners, 2010 Style

Now all the postseason awards are handed out and there’s cheering in some circles and weeping in others. In some previous posts, I stated my position on the various individual awards. How did I do?

I looked at the awards in two ways. The managers I told you who I thought should win. With the other three awards (Rookie, Cy Young, MVP) I told you who I thought would win. Here are the results, managers first.

I said I would vote for Bud Black and for Terry Francona. I also stated that Francona had no shot at winning, but that I felt he’d done the best job trying to win with what was essentially an ER ward. I did note that Ron Gardenhire was a legitimate candidate to win, but that I personally chose Francona. So I went one for two, getting Black right. That’s better than I normally do. Usually I get the managers all wrong unless someone comes out of left field to win a pennant or something. So I can pat myself on the back, at least a little.

On the player awards I went 5 of 6, which is a lot better than I usually do. Maybe this trying to figure out what the writer’s are going to do is easier than picking the people myself. I got both MVPs, both Rookies, and the NL Cy Young winners. I missed, as I stated in my last post, the AL Cy Young winner. I underestimated the amount of credence the writers would give to the new sabrmetric stats that favored Felix Hernandez for the award. So I guess I had a reasonably successful time picking postseason awards in 2010.

Does it mean anything? Well, my picking doesn’t, but the writer’s picks might or might not (how’s that for being definite?). If you look down the lists of Rookies of the Year and MVPs and Cy Young Award winners you get a mixed bag. In rookie voting you get Cal Ripken and Ron Kittle in back-to-back years (BTW Ripken is the last ROY winner to make the Hall of Fame). Not all of the ROY winners go on to great careers. Sticking with Ripken, he wins the MVP in 1983 and is followed by Willie Hernandez. Not exactly the same quality player, right? The Cy Young gives us Sandy Koufax and Dean Chance in back-to-back seasons. Again, very different quality players. My point is simply that winning one of these awards is no guarantee of long term greatness. So we need to be careful about how much weight we put on these awards.

Having said that, congratulations to all the winners. I hope they go on to great and illustrious careers. Now if the Dodgers could just pick up one or two of these guys…


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3 Responses to “Picking the Winners, 2010 Style”

  1. William Miller Says:

    Any predictions as to how Don Mattingly will make out in his rookie season as a manager in L.A.? Track record of rookie managers is not so good (see Tom Verducci’s column yesterday.) Still, I wish him luck. He’s a class act.
    Happy Thanksgiving, Bill

  2. verdun2 Says:

    Loved Mattingly (which is really tough for any Dodgers fan to say about a Yankees player) but I don’t think he has the horses to win in 2011 without reference to the McCourt divorce case (Where’s Tammy Wynette when we need her?), but I can hope.
    BTW will be out of pocket on 30 November so won’t be available to offer you congrats on your blog’s 1st anniversary. So here’s an early congratulations and may you have a next great year on the blog.
    Best wishes, and enjoy your Thanksgiving.

  3. William Miller Says:

    Thanks so much; I appreciate the sentiments. Hopefully, I’ll continue to be able to generate content worth reading next year. Hope your family has a great holiday, Bill

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