A 2020 Ballot

Scott Rolen

Well, I looked over the players on the 2020 Hall of Fame ballot. There are some very good choices listed. There are some people wasting their time on the ballot. Knowing you can’t wait to find out just which I would vote for if I were a BBWAA member with a ballot, I decided it was time to let you in on my fictional ballot, listed here in no particular order.

Derek Jeter–Is there any question he’s getting in? He is one of the more famous players of the last 20 years. He has an aura about him that lifts him above the quality of his play and makes him seem better than he truly was when he was on the field. There are a handful of those with Joe DiMaggio coming instantly to mind. It’s not a bad thing, but I think it detracts from a true view of the player. Jeter is one of them. Having said that, I’d vote for him.

Larry Walker–It’s his 10th, and final year on the ballot. I’ve supported him before and will continue. I think he has too many votes to make up, but maybe he’ll get lucky. I expect he’ll have to wait for the appropriate Veteran’s Committee to get in. And Coors Field certainly is going to be held against him.

Todd Helton–And continuing with “The Curse of Coors Field,” we have Helton. Excellent first baseman, good hitter, but not a typical first baseman. He never hit for great power. Add that to Coors Field and he will continue to languish, I believe. But I still think he ought to be in.

Scott Rolen–I don’t suppose when he was playing that I thought of Rolen as a Hall of Famer. He was merely one of a number of guys who tried to replace Mike Schmidt. None of them were Schmidt and all of them suffered from the comparison. Rolen is one of those guys who have been elevated by the new SABR stats (while others have been hurt by same). I’m happy to admit I was wrong about Rolen as a Hall of Famer.

Curt Schilling–Has a loud mouth. It’s hurt him before, it will probably hurt him again. That’s kind of a shame.

Jeff Kent–Sits right on the border of Hall of Fame territory for me. He was good, particularly as a hitter, winning an MVP Award (that was as much a slight to Barry Bonds as it was a resounding testament to Kent’s playing ability). I hold out very little hope for his enshrinement this year, but he has some time left.

That ends my ballot, but a couple of words about a few more players:

Bobby Abreu–Did you think of Abreu as a Hall of Famer when he was playing? Maybe a little, but not consistently, right? Me too.  I’d like to see him remain on the list so the writers can study his case more.

Cliff Lee–I did think Lee was a Hall of Famer for a while, then his career slid off the rails. As with Abreu, I’d like more time to study his case. So I would add both he and Abreu to a ballot just to help insure they remain on the ballot.

There’s the ballot. Feel free to disagree (and be wrong).

 

 

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Thoughts on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot

Mike Mussina with the Orioles

Alright, I know you people have been breathlessly waiting to see who I think the writers ought to add to the Hall of Fame. Well, not being one to disappoint, at least not too often, here we go. As usual, I figure if they’re going to give me 10 votes, I’m going to take them.

In no particular order:

1. Mariano Rivera–if you have to ask why, you haven’t been paying attention.

2. Todd Helton–will be hurt by playing in Coors Field and being a gap power guy, but he was a good first baseman and an excellent hitter. I think he ought to be in, but I also think it may take a while. His WAR is 61.2.

3. Roy Halladay–first off, the playoff no-hitter will help a lot. Not getting a ring may offset that. His 65.5 WAR will help, as will the two Cy Young Awards (and two runners-up). I’m not sure whether his death will lead to a sympathy vote or not. It seems to help some guys and not help others. I also think that some of the writers will focus on his two seasons with 20 wins, while on the other hand, he never won an ERA or strikeout title.

4. Lance Berkman–frankly I’m not convinced Berkman is a Hall of Famer, but he’s a player I really liked and I’d like to see him get a second (and third, and…) chance so the writers can get more  time to evaluate him. A winner with both Houston and St. Louis and a valuable member of the 2011 World Series winner. He also has an RBI title and one doubles crown (both with Houston).

And the holdovers:

5. Edgar Martinez–sorry, guys, but designated hitter is a position and he was the best at it. It’s also his last chance before the Veteran’s Committee.

6. Mike Mussina–has a lot of good stats, both traditional and new age. For the old guys, he has a lot of wins. For the new guys his WAR is 82.9. He has one wins title and one 20 game win season (not the same season). A knock on him is that he was never a member of a championship team.

7. Curt Schilling–certainly was a member of championship teams, three of them. He is instrumental in breaking “The Curse of the Bambino” (if you believe in things like that), and he has the “Bloody Sock” (which is kinda like the “Bloody Shirt” after the Civil War). He also led his league in both strikeouts and wins twice. His WAR is 80.6, which exceeds a lot of Hall of Fame pitchers. But he has political opinions that are, in some quarters, unacceptable. He’s not being chosen for the Hall of Great Political Scientists, fellas. There are a lot greater rogues in the Hall than Schilling. I think it will probably hurt him at least one more time.

8. Scott Rolen–a much better third baseman than most people realize. He followed Mike Schmidt, wasn’t Schmidt (neither was anyone else), and was never forgiven for it. He did pick up a ring in 2006 with St. Louis (and had a fine World Series). I’ll bet most people don’t know his WAR is 70.2. He was a Rookie of the Year, but never led his league in any major hitting category, but he does have seven Gold Gloves and unlike a lot of winners, deserved most of them.

9. Larry Walker–super arm and a terrific hitter, but he, like Helton, played a lot of his career in Coors Field. He won an MVP and two batting titles there. He also moved to St. Louis late in his career and did well. He hit .357 in his only World Series (a loss). Unfortunately, he has no huge home run number nor RBI number to impress writers, but a 141 OPS+ and 72.7 WAR ought to get someone’s attention.

10. Jeff Kent–has an MVP, but it was controversial at the time. Has a lot of home runs for a second baseman, but wasn’t all that great a second baseman. He made one World Series (two years following his MVP year) and had a good series, but the team lost. He has the advantage of being arguably the best second baseman of his era. Not sure that’s enough to get him elected, certainly not this time.

So there it is, my list. And if they don’t all make it, the writer’s are wrong (and I’m, of course, right). My guess is we’ll see about 3 elected this time (just a guess).

Random Musings on the Class of 2018

A few random thoughts on the Hall of Fame Class of 2018:

1. First, congratulations to Jack Morris, Alan Trammell of the Veteran’s Committee and Vladimir Guerrero, Trevor Hoffman, Chipper Jones, and Jim Thome on election to the Hall of Fame.

2. There is a certain amount of hope for both Edgar Martinez and Mike Mussina for next year. Both showed a rise in percentage of votes, with Martinez landing over 70%. He ended up 19 votes short of election.

3. The bad news for Martinez is next year is his last year on the writers ballot. At 70% it should still be relatively easy for him to make the Hall.

4. The next three guys down ballot were Curt Schilling, Barry Bonds, and Roger Clemens. The one I’m most interested in is Schilling. It seems his post career activities are hurting him (some writers admit it) and I’m not sure whether to accept that as a legitimate concern or not. The “character clause” is so ill-defined as to allow for about anything to be considered “good character” or “bad character” and doesn’t seem to know whether those definitions (such as they are) involve on the field issues, baseball related issues, or just about everything a fellow does. Is having unpopular political views “bad character” or not? Is cheating on your wife “bad character” or not? I have my opinion, but it’s strictly my opinion and it seems the Hall is allowing every voter to have his “my opinion” and that leads to all sorts of swings in meaning. Personally, I presume the “character clause” to relate strictly to those things that directly effect a player’s baseball career. I’m not sure how much Babe Ruth running around on his first wife changed what he did on the field (maybe yes, maybe no). I do know that Joe Jackson joining in throwing a World Series (and that’s 100 years next year) effected baseball. I also know that we may not think much of Ty Cobb’s views of race, but in 1910 a lot of people agreed with him (it’s possible to say he was even in the majority in 1910), so we have to be careful how much the standards of our time effect how we look at players who played even just a few years back.

5. The purging of voters and adding of new guys didn’t seem to help either Clemens or Bonds much. They’re up a little with four years remaining on the ballot. It will be interesting to see how much movement there is over the four years. It’s possible they’ll get there in four years, but I’m still betting on the writer’s kicking it to the Veteran’s Committee and letting them make a final decision. That could be particularly interesting as the Hall does present the Committee with a ballot and forces them to confine their vote to the 10 people listed. The appearance of any of the steroid boys on a ballot (McGwire would come first) will tell us something about the Hall’s own stand on the issue.

6. Next year is a walk over for Mariano Rivera. The guy I’m most interested in his Todd Helton. He played in Colorado and that seems to matter a lot to voters. We’ll see what happens (see Walker, Larry).

7. I love the idea of “light” votes and “dark” votes. That’s the way they’re describing the votes. Light votes are those that were published prior to election and dark votes aren’t. Kinda catchy. I wonder if anyone’s tried to use “Hey, kid, I have a dark ballot for the Hall of Fame” as a pickup line?

The Hall elections are always fun and next year promises more of the same. Ain’t it grand?

A Sad Good-Bye

Todd Helton

It’s the time of season when we say good-bye to a lot of players. Some of them voluntarily ride off into the sunset, while others are sent packing. A third group gets relegated to the minors and never surface again. This year we’re saying a voluntary “good-bye” to three quality players: Andy Pettitte, Todd Helton, and Mariano Rivera. I’ve done Pettitte. Here’s my take on Helton (Rivera to follow).

Helton is the finest player in Colorado history. His only true competition is Larry Walker and Walker spent a lot of quality playing time in Montreal. Helton will end his career with a .300 batting average, an OPS in the .950s, and currently has an OPS+ of 133. He’s got 368 home runs, 4277 total bases, and a week left to play. He’s not going to get 3000 hits, but he might make 1400 RBIs (he’s got 1398). He has a batting title, a slugging title (who knew?), an RBI title, and led the league in doubles. He’s an excellent first baseman leading the National League in assists, range factor, and fielding percentage at various times. He’s seldom played for a winner (he made it to one World Series), so he’s missed much of the limelight that other players receive. Colorado is kind of an obscure team anyway, mostly famous for balls in humidors and Coors Field, but Helton still made the All Star team five times. And he just pulled off the hidden ball trick.

But, of course, there’s Coors Field and some people think he’s gotten unfair advantage in his playing career. So did a lot of people and we now have stats that are supposed to take care of factoring that in. But whether they do a good job of it or not, it really doesn’t make a lot of difference to me. I look at the high mound of Dodger Stadium and note no one but Sandy Koufax put up his numbers. I look at Fenway Park and note a lot of people couldn’t bounce doubles off the “Green Monster” the way Wade Boggs did. And Mel Ott had the Polo Grounds, but so did a lot of other players. So I don’t think a park alone should be a determination of the player’s career. Let us celebrate Helton because we know he’d be a great player no matter his park. Enjoy the time off, man.